Spengler on a new war over Kosovo

Asia Times columnist Spengler has just posted an important article in which he describes tensions between Russia and the West over Kosovo—and the possibly far-reaching implications of these tensions. "Washington proposes to sacrifice the remaining [100,000] Christians in Kosovo in order to earn Muslim support" in the Middle East, Spengler says (adding that such an effort to earn Muslim support seems futile). Serbia and her traditional ally Russia would quite reasonably prefer the Kosovo Christian areas, which are part of the historical Serbian heartland, to be transferred to Serbia, but the UN/American plan for Kosovo insists on creating an independent Muslim-controlled country without dividing its territory. While this issue is largely below the radar of American opinion, it "inflames Russia's worst fears about America's intent", looming as "yet another prospective humiliation" for the Russians. The Russians will most probably veto the UN plan in the Security Council, with the result that a "small shooting war" may erupt between the Serbs and the Kosovo Muslims. Room for compromise is limited by the Americans' misinterpretation of Russia's position as part of a "series of . . . challenges to the stability of Europe" (Richard Holbrooke).

The consequences of such a war are unpredictable, Spengler writes, but are potentially dramatic. Russia does not want an open conflict with Muslims, but may draw a line in the sand over the sacrifice of the Kosovo Christians. Spengler suggests, without going into details, that this may "pre-empt the debate over Europe's eventual absorption into the Muslim world", i.e., make impossible the gradual and peaceful absorption which is the best that many Western Europeans seem to be hoping for.

One should probably add the caveat that Spengler seems recently to have flip-flopped in his assessment of Russia, which he formerly saw as a terminally ill society with a foreign policy founded on "no motivation save amusement and revenge", but now appears to regard with some admiration as grimly determined to stave off its own Islamicization, which is, of course, a looming problem given the collapse in its non-Muslim birth rate. In contrast, Spengler's Western Europe consists of a "beaten, deracinated rabble with no will to fight".